Chris Moore Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Chris Moore

NFL · Player Props

Chris Moore

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving TD

Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Chris Moore Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+380/-781).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +402 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +380.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Chris Moore has been a big part of his team's offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 16.7% this year, which ranks in the 77th percentile among wideouts.
Chris Moore has put up far more air yards this year (25.0 per game) than he did last year (8.0 per game).
Chris Moore's 22.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 12.7.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 8th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 54.9 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.7 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
The Houston Texans offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Washington Commanders safeties profile as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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