Chris Godwin Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Chris Godwin

NFL · Player Props

Chris Godwin

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Chris Godwin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In this contest, Chris Godwin is anticipated by the projection model to land in the 80th percentile among wideouts with 7.4 targets.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point jump in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, Chris Godwin has been more prominently incorporated in his team's passing game.
The Tampa Bay O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing game stats across the board.
Chris Godwin comes in as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league, catching an impressive 75.2% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 81st percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers offensive blueprint to lean 6.0% more towards the run game than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
The Buccaneers are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a running game script.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 55.3% of their chances: the 8th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are predicted by the model to run only 63.1 total plays in this game: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The 10th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year (just 55.6 per game on average).

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