Chris Godwin Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Chris Godwin

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Chris Godwin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+115/-145).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Buccaneers are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.6 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: most in the NFL.
In this week's game, Chris Godwin is expected by the model to slot into the 83rd percentile among wideouts with 7.8 targets.
Chris Godwin's 57.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 46.5.
In regards to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Buccaneers profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 6.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The projections expect the Buccaneers as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 56.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are forecasted by the projection model to call only 62.9 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The 10th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year (a lowly 56.2 per game on average).
Chris Godwin's 5.2 adjusted catches per game this season shows a a material drop-off in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 6.8 mark.