Chris Godwin Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Chris Godwin

NFL · Player Props

Chris Godwin

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Chris Godwin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +118 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 62.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The leading projections forecast Chris Godwin to notch 7.4 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among WRs.
Chris Godwin has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 22.0% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 82nd percentile when it comes to WRs.

Favors Under

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Chris Godwin's possession skills have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 74.7% to 71.4%.
The Saints pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (54.8%) versus wide receivers this year (54.8%).
The Saints defensive tackles project as the 6th-best DT corps in the league since the start of last season when it comes to rushing the passer.

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