Chris Godwin Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Chris Godwin

NFL · Player Props

Chris Godwin

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 6:01 PM EST

Analysis

Chris Godwin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-150/+120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Chris Godwin has run a route on 86.2% of his team's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 78th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
The predictive model expects Chris Godwin to garner 7.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile when it comes to WRs.
When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Atlanta's group of LBs has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 5th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 56.2 plays per game.
Chris Godwin's receiving performance has worsened this season, notching a measly 4.4 adjusted catches vs 6.8 last season.
Chris Godwin's 64.5% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a remarkable diminishment in his receiving prowess over last year's 74.7% mark.
The Falcons pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (61.6%) versus wideouts this year (61.6%).

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