Chris Godwin Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Chris Godwin

NFL · Player Props

Chris Godwin

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Chris Godwin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+115/-149).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +111 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -149.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect Chris Godwin to earn 7.0 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among WRs.
With a remarkable 20.8% Target Share (79th percentile) this year, Chris Godwin rates as one of the wide receivers with the highest volume in the NFL.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Carolina's collection of CBs has been easily exploitable this year, profiling as the 8th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers offensive strategy to tilt 4.6% more towards the run game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
With a 3.5-point advantage, the Buccaneers are favored in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their usual approach.
The model projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 128.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the league.
Chris Godwin's 4.8 adjusted catches per game this season reflects a remarkable regression in his receiving ability over last season's 6.8 rate.

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