Chris Godwin Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Chris Godwin

NFL · Player Props

Chris Godwin

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Chris Godwin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-160/+130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line indicates an extreme passing game script for the Buccaneers, who are giant -13.5-point underdogs.
The predictive model expects the Buccaneers as the 3rd-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (38.7 per game) this year.
In this week's contest, Chris Godwin is forecasted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 78th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 6.9 targets.
With an elite 21.0% Target Share (79th percentile) this year, Chris Godwin rates among the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in football.

Favors Under

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are anticipated by the projections to run just 60.0 offensive plays in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.
Chris Godwin's pass-catching performance diminished this year, accumulating just 4.8 adjusted catches vs 6.8 last year.
Chris Godwin's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 74.7% to 67.8%.
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, San Francisco's collection of LBs has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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