Chris Godwin Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Chris Godwin

NFL · Player Props

Chris Godwin

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 5:06 PM EST

Analysis

Chris Godwin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

In this week's game, Chris Godwin is predicted by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 82nd percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.2 targets.
Chris Godwin has been a big part of his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 21.8% this year, which puts him in the 81st percentile when it comes to wideouts.
When talking about pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Buccaneers ranks as the 9th-best in football this year.
The Titans pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (74.6%) vs. wide receivers this year (74.6%).
As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Tennessee's safety corps has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the 4th-worst in football.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive strategy to tilt 4.8% more towards running than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are expected by our trusted projection set to call only 62.5 total plays in this game: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 56.8 plays per game.
Chris Godwin's 5.0 adjusted catches per game this year conveys a significant decrease in his receiving skills over last year's 6.8 rate.
Chris Godwin's possession skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 74.7% to 66.5%.

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