Chris Godwin Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Chris Godwin

NFL · Player Props

Chris Godwin

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 27, 2023 12:06 AM EST

Analysis

Chris Godwin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 53.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 53.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a big 9.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to pass on 61.4% of their opportunities: the 8th-highest clip among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast Chris Godwin to earn 8.0 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 86th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Chris Godwin has been an integral part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 22.6% this year, which puts him in the 84th percentile among wide receivers.
After accumulating 60.0 air yards per game last year, Chris Godwin has posted big gains this year, currently pacing 71.0 per game.

Favors Under

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 4.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are expected by the predictive model to call only 62.5 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.
The 10th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Buccaneers this year (a lowly 56.3 per game on average).
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.
Chris Godwin's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 74.7% to 69.7%.

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