Chris Godwin Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Chris Godwin

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 23, 2023 2:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Chris Godwin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 58.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 59.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 58.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In this contest, Chris Godwin is anticipated by the projection model to land in the 80th percentile among wideouts with 7.4 targets.
After accumulating 60.0 air yards per game last season, Chris Godwin has seen a big uptick this season, currently averaging 72.0 per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point jump in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, Chris Godwin has been more prominently incorporated in his team's passing game.
The Tampa Bay O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing game stats across the board.
Chris Godwin has been one of the best WRs in the game this year, averaging a remarkable 65.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 86th percentile.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers offensive blueprint to lean 6.0% more towards the run game than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
The Buccaneers are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a running game script.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 55.3% of their chances: the 8th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are predicted by the model to run only 63.1 total plays in this game: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The 10th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year (just 55.6 per game on average).