Chris Godwin Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Chris Godwin

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Chris Godwin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 56.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 58.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 56.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Buccaneers are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.6 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: most in the NFL.
In this week's game, Chris Godwin is expected by the model to slot into the 83rd percentile among wideouts with 7.8 targets.
After accruing 60.0 air yards per game last year, Chris Godwin has made big progress this year, now averaging 68.0 per game.
Chris Godwin's 57.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 46.5.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 6.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The projections expect the Buccaneers as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 56.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are forecasted by the projection model to call only 62.9 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The 10th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year (a lowly 56.2 per game on average).
This year, the formidable Detroit Lions pass defense has yielded the least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing wideouts: a mere 2.6 YAC.