Chris Godwin Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Chris Godwin

NFL · Player Props

Chris Godwin

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 3:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Chris Godwin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 40.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Chris Godwin has run a route on 86.2% of his team's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 78th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
The predictive model expects Chris Godwin to garner 7.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile when it comes to WRs.
Chris Godwin has accumulated quite a few more air yards this year (68.0 per game) than he did last year (60.0 per game).

Favors Under

The Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 56.2 plays per game.
Chris Godwin has accrued significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (51.0) this season than he did last season (71.0).
Chris Godwin's 64.5% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a remarkable diminishment in his receiving prowess over last year's 74.7% mark.
This year, the tough Atlanta Falcons defense has given up a mere 133.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers: the 5th-best in the NFL.

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