Chris Godwin Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Chris Godwin

NFL · Player Props

Chris Godwin

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Chris Godwin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-110/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect Chris Godwin to earn 7.0 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among WRs.
With a remarkable 20.8% Target Share (79th percentile) this year, Chris Godwin rates as one of the wide receivers with the highest volume in the NFL.
After accumulating 60.0 air yards per game last season, Chris Godwin has seen marked improvement this season, currently averaging 70.0 per game.
Chris Godwin's ability to grind out extra yardage has been refined this year, compiling 5.21 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 4.01 mark last year.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Carolina's collection of CBs has been easily exploitable this year, profiling as the 8th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers offensive strategy to tilt 4.6% more towards the run game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
With a 3.5-point advantage, the Buccaneers are favored in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their usual approach.
The model projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 128.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the league.
Chris Godwin has compiled substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (56.0) this year than he did last year (71.0).

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