Chris Godwin Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Chris Godwin

NFL · Player Props

Chris Godwin

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Chris Godwin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 48.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 53.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 48.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to pass on 61.2% of their downs: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
This week, Chris Godwin is forecasted by our trusted projection set to slot into the 81st percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.4 targets.
With a sizeable 20.7% Target% (77th percentile) this year, Chris Godwin rates among the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in football.
After totaling 60.0 air yards per game last season, Chris Godwin has shown good development this season, currently boasting 72.0 per game.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers offensive scheme to tilt 4.3% more towards the rushing attack than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
Opposing teams have played at the 10th-slowest pace in football (adjusted for context) against the Buccaneers defense this year, averaging 28.03 seconds per play.
Chris Godwin's 57.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year reflects a noteworthy decline in his pass-catching ability over last year's 71.0 rate.
Chris Godwin's receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 74.7% to 68.6%.
This year, the tough Indianapolis Colts pass defense has yielded the 8th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing wideouts: a paltry 3.4 YAC.

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