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Chris Godwin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 51.5 (-140/+100).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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This week's line indicates an extreme passing game script for the Buccaneers, who are giant -13.5-point underdogs.The predictive model expects the Buccaneers as the 3rd-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (38.7 per game) this year.In this week's contest, Chris Godwin is forecasted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 78th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 6.9 targets.With an elite 21.0% Target Share (79th percentile) this year, Chris Godwin rates among the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in football.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are anticipated by the projections to run just 60.0 offensive plays in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.Chris Godwin's 58.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year shows a remarkable diminishment in his pass-catching ability over last year's 71.0 mark.Chris Godwin's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 74.7% to 67.8%.As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, San Francisco's collection of LBs has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the NFL.
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