Chris Godwin Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Chris Godwin

NFL · Player Props

Chris Godwin

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Chris Godwin Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+142/-197).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -193 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -197.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 128.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 61.7 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 6th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Chris Godwin to be a much bigger part of his offense's air attack near the end zone this week (22.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (13.3% in games he has played).

Favors Under

Chris Godwin has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (59.0 per game) than he did last season (69.0 per game).
Chris Godwin's receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 79.5% to 68.7%.
Chris Godwin ranks in the 1st percentile among wideouts as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a lowly 0.00 per game.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 10th-best safety corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

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