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Chris Godwin

Chris Godwin Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 6

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Chris Godwin Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+153/-210).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +153 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +153.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
  • THE BLITZ projects Chris Godwin to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass attack near the goal line this week (21.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (14.3% in games he has played).
  • Chris Godwin has accumulated a whopping 62.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 75th percentile among wide receivers.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Buccaneers are a big 9.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
  • Chris Godwin's 29.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 47.5.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have used play action on just 17.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the league), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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