Chris Godwin Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Chris Godwin

NFL · Player Props

Chris Godwin

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Chris Godwin Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+153/-210).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +153 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +153.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Chris Godwin to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass attack near the goal line this week (21.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (14.3% in games he has played).
Chris Godwin has accumulated a whopping 62.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 75th percentile among wide receivers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a big 9.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Chris Godwin's 29.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 47.5.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have used play action on just 17.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the league), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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