Chris Godwin Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Chris Godwin

NFL · Player Props

Chris Godwin

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 6, 2022 1:21 AM EST

Analysis

Chris Godwin Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+164/-231).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -204 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -231.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 62.9 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Chris Godwin to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing game near the end zone this week (19.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (12.7% in games he has played).
Chris Godwin's 48.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 77th percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: least in the league.
Chris Godwin has posted quite a few less air yards this season (64.0 per game) than he did last season (69.0 per game).
Chris Godwin's possession skills have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 79.6% to 73.3%.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.30 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.

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