Chigoziem Okonkwo Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Chigoziem Okonkwo

NFL · Player Props

Chigoziem Okonkwo

TE · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:16 PM EST

Analysis

Chigoziem Okonkwo Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Tennessee Titans offensive gameplan to tilt 2.7% more towards the passing game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see just 130.9 total plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
In this game, Chigoziem Okonkwo is predicted by the predictive model to place in the 83rd percentile among tight ends with 4.6 targets.
Chigoziem Okonkwo has been a more integral piece of his team's passing attack this season (16.0% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (10.8%).

Favors Under

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Tennessee Titans to pass on 53.5% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The Tennessee Titans have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 52.2 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Colts defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
Chigoziem Okonkwo's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 71.9% to 67.1%.

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