Chigoziem Okonkwo Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Chigoziem Okonkwo

TE · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 11:16 PM EST

Analysis

Chigoziem Okonkwo Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tennessee Titans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 3.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
Chigoziem Okonkwo has been used less as a potential target this season (70.2% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (32.0%).
Chigoziem Okonkwo's possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 71.9% to 77.1%.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Tennessee Titans to be the 6th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Titans offense to be the 3rd-worst paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.90 seconds per snap.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line grades out as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
Chigoziem Okonkwo's 17.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season indicates a a noteable drop-off in his receiving skills over last season's 27.0 figure.
Chigoziem Okonkwo's 5.1 adjusted yards per target this year conveys a a material regression in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 9.0 figure.