Chigoziem Okonkwo Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Chigoziem Okonkwo

TE · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Chigoziem Okonkwo Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tennessee Titans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually prompt increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume.
The projections expect Chigoziem Okonkwo to earn 4.9 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile when it comes to TEs.
Chigoziem Okonkwo has been an integral part of his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 11.2% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 75th percentile among TEs.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has allowed the 3rd-highest Completion% in the league (78.6%) to TEs since the start of last season (78.6%).

Favors Under

The model projects the Tennessee Titans as the 10th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Titans to call the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Titans have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 54.0 plays per game.
The Titans O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Chigoziem Okonkwo's pass-catching effectiveness has diminished this season, notching just 3.87 yards-per-target vs a 8.98 mark last season.