Chigoziem Okonkwo Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Chigoziem Okonkwo

TE · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Carolina Panthers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Chigoziem Okonkwo Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-143/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The leading projections forecast Chigoziem Okonkwo to earn 4.1 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile among TEs.
Chigoziem Okonkwo has put up far more air yards this season (32.0 per game) than he did last season (21.0 per game).
With a RATE1-RATE2 point uptick in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, Chigoziem Okonkwo has been more heavily featured in his offense's pass attack.
This year, the shaky Panthers defense has allowed the 7th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing tight ends: a whopping 8.03 yards.

Favors Under

A running game script is indicated by the Titans being a 3.5-point favorite in this game.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Tennessee Titans to pass on 50.2% of their downs: the lowest clip among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The fewest plays in football have been called by the Tennessee Titans this year (a mere 52.7 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Panthers, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 30.7 per game) this year.