Chigoziem Okonkwo Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Chigoziem Okonkwo

NFL · Player Props

Chigoziem Okonkwo

TE · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Chigoziem Okonkwo Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Titans offensive strategy to skew 1.9% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
Opposing offenses have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game against the Buccaneers defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
The model projects Chigoziem Okonkwo to earn 4.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Chigoziem Okonkwo's 16.2% Target Share this year indicates an impressive progression in his passing offense utilization over last year's 10.8% rate.
After accruing 21.0 air yards per game last year, Chigoziem Okonkwo has seen marked improvement this year, now boasting 31.0 per game.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Titans to pass on 53.4% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Titans are expected by the model to run only 62.8 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a measly 54.5 plays per game.
When talking about pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Titans grades out as the 9th-worst in the league this year.
Chigoziem Okonkwo's receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 71.9% to 67.8%.

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