Chigoziem Okonkwo Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Chigoziem Okonkwo

TE · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Tennessee Titans · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Chigoziem Okonkwo Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 34.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 33.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tennessee Titans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.4% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Titans are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Chigoziem Okonkwo to total 5.4 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Chigoziem Okonkwo to be a more integral piece of his team's air attack this week (16.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (10.8% in games he has played).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 7th-least pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 59.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 54.2 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans O-line ranks as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Chigoziem Okonkwo has been among the worst TEs in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 2nd percentile.