Chigoziem Okonkwo Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

NFL · Player Props

Chigoziem Okonkwo

TE · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Chigoziem Okonkwo Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 43.3 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in the league.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has allowed the 6th-most receiving yards per game in the league (64.0) versus TEs this year.
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have incorporated play action on 30.3% of their passing plays since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 3rd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 51.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 52.7 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Chigoziem Okonkwo has been among the bottom pass-game tight ends this year, averaging a lowly 10.0 yards per game while ranking in the 17th percentile among tight ends.