Chase Edmonds Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Chase Edmonds

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Chase Edmonds Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (+108/-142).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -168 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Miami Dolphins have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in football). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.
The Miami Dolphins have utilized some form of misdirection on 56.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (5th-most in football), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.95 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Chase Edmonds to be a less important option in his team's rushing attack this week (16.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (28.4% in games he has played).
Chase Edmonds has run for significantly fewer yards per game (17.0) this season than he did last season (48.0).
Chase Edmonds's running efficiency has declined this season, notching a mere 2.89 yards-per-carry compared to a 5.32 figure last season.