Chase Edmonds Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Chase Edmonds

NFL · Player Props

Chase Edmonds

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Chase Edmonds Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-105/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
The New York Jets safeties grade out as the 32nd-worst collection of safeties in football this year in regard to defending the run.
The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

The Dolphins rank as the 10th-least run-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 33.4% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 2nd-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 30.77 seconds per snap.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year at opening holes for runners.
Chase Edmonds has rushed for substantially fewer yards per game (21.0) this year than he did last year (48.0).
Chase Edmonds's rushing efficiency has worsened this year, totaling a measly 2.94 yards-per-carry compared to a 5.32 figure last year.

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