Chase Edmonds Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Chase Edmonds

NFL · Player Props

Chase Edmonds

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM EST

Analysis

Chase Edmonds Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 33.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Miami Dolphins have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 63.9 plays per game.
Chase Edmonds has been given 44.7% of his team's carries this year, ranking him in the 79th percentile among RBs.
Chase Edmonds has grinded out 45.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in football among running backs (76th percentile).
Chase Edmonds's rushing effectiveness (5.03 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football since the start of last season (89th percentile among running backs).

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 4th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 37.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 119.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
Chase Edmonds has been among the worst running backs in the NFL at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a lowly 2.63 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while checking in at the 16th percentile.

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