Chase Edmonds Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Chase Edmonds

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Chase Edmonds Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (-110/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects Chase Edmonds to be a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack this week (49.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (39.1% in games he has played).
Chase Edmonds has picked up 46.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the league among RBs (78th percentile).
Chase Edmonds's ground efficiency (4.96 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football since the start of last season (87th percentile among running backs).
The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The Dolphins have been the 6th-least run-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 29.1% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 58.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
Chase Edmonds has been among the bottom running backs in the league at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging a measly 2.62 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 18th percentile.