Chase Edmonds Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Chase Edmonds

RB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing TD

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Chase Edmonds Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+311/-562).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +339 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +311.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
Chase Edmonds has run for 0.50 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in the league among RBs (91st percentile).
Opposing squads have rushed for the 3rd-most touchdowns in football (1.25 per game) vs. the New York Jets defense this year.
The New York Jets safeties grade out as the 32nd-worst collection of safeties in football this year in regard to defending the run.
The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-least run-heavy team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 40.3% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 2nd-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 30.77 seconds per snap.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year at opening holes for runners.
The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.