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Chase Edmonds

Chase Edmonds Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 3

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Chase Edmonds Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+263/-438).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -389 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -438.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Miami Dolphins have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 63.9 plays per game.

Opposing teams have run for the 7th-most TDs in football (1.05 per game) against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season.

The Buffalo Bills safeties profile as the 30th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Dolphins are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 6th-least run-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 39.4% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 119.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football since the start of last season at run-game blocking.

The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box against opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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