Chase Edmonds Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Chase Edmonds

NFL · Player Props

Chase Edmonds

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2022

Updated Sep 29, 2022 11:40 PM EST

Analysis

Chase Edmonds Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+145/-190).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +150 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The Dolphins have been the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 68.5% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.
Chase Edmonds has been among the best pass-catching running backs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 3.1 receptions per game while checking in at the 92nd percentile.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers grade out as the worst unit in football since the start of last season in regard to pass rush.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Chase Edmonds's 13.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 20.3.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Chase Edmonds's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 84.3% to 73.6%.

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