Chase Edmonds Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Chase Edmonds

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM EST

Analysis

Chase Edmonds Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+103/-136).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -127 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -136.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Chase Edmonds to garner 3.3 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 81st percentile among running backs.
Chase Edmonds has been a key part of his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 13.4% since the start of last season, which places him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
Chase Edmonds has been among the leading pass-game running backs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 3.3 receptions per game while checking in at the 92nd percentile.
The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-most sluggish in the NFL since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 118.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.