Chase Edmonds Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Chase Edmonds

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Chase Edmonds Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-102/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -126 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
Chase Edmonds has put up a monstrous 8.0 air yards per game this year: 93rd percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Chase Edmonds's ability to pick up extra yardage has gotten a boost this year, totaling 9.38 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 6.98 figure last year.
The Minnesota Vikings defense has allowed the 6th-most receiving yards per game in the league (46.0) vs. running backs this year.
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing RBs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 11.70 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-most in the league.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.95 seconds per play.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-least in football.
Chase Edmonds's 13.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 20.3.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing offense stats across the board.