Chase Edmonds Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Chase Edmonds

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Chase Edmonds Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-103/-129).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins rank as the 10th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 66.6% pass rate.
Chase Edmonds has posted a colossal 10.0 air yards per game this year: 96th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Chase Edmonds has been among the most efficient receivers in football among running backs, averaging a stellar 6.47 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 75th percentile.
Chase Edmonds's skills in generating extra yardage have been refined this season, compiling 9.38 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a mere 6.98 rate last season.
The New York Jets pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-highest Completion% in the NFL (86.6%) to running backs since the start of last season (86.6%).

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 2nd-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 30.77 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
Chase Edmonds's 14.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 20.3.