Chase Edmonds Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Chase Edmonds

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM EST

Analysis

Chase Edmonds Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-102/-129).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Chase Edmonds to garner 3.3 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 81st percentile among running backs.
Chase Edmonds has been a key part of his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 13.4% since the start of last season, which places him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
Chase Edmonds has been among the leading pass-catching running backs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 25.0 yards per game while ranking in the 90th percentile.
The New England Patriots defense has allowed the 4th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (46.0) versus RBs since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency vs. running backs since the start of last season, giving up 7.15 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 118.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.