Chase Edmonds Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Chase Edmonds

RB · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM EST

Analysis

Chase Edmonds Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+880/-3000).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
Chase Edmonds has put up a monstrous 8.0 air yards per game this year: 93rd percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Chase Edmonds grades out in the 89th percentile among running backs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a terrific 0.20 per game.
The Minnesota Vikings safeties profile as the 8th-worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
The Minnesota Vikings defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.56 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-slowest in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.95 seconds per play.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-least in football.
THE BLITZ projects Chase Edmonds to be much less involved in his team's pass attack near the goal line this week (7.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (13.6% in games he has played).
Chase Edmonds's 13.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 20.3.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing offense stats across the board.