Chase Edmonds Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Chase Edmonds

NFL · Player Props

Chase Edmonds

RB · Miami Dolphins

Carries

Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM EST

Analysis

Chase Edmonds Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects Chase Edmonds to be a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack this week (49.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (39.1% in games he has played).
The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The Dolphins have been the 6th-least run-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 29.1% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 58.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
The Baltimore Ravens defensive ends project as the 6th-best DE corps in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

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