Chase Claypool Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Chase Claypool

NFL · Player Props

Chase Claypool

WR · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Chicago Bears · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 7:26 PM EST

Analysis

Chase Claypool Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+142/-192).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +148 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are an enormous 12.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the NFL.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers grade out as the 9th-worst group of LBs in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 6th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 3rd-slowest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 29.10 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Chase Claypool to be a much smaller piece of his team's air attack this week (11.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (17.5% in games he has played).
Chase Claypool has been among the weakest pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging a measly 1.0 receptions per game while checking in at the 9th percentile among wide receivers.
Chase Claypool has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL, catching just 48.3% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 17th percentile among WRs

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