Chase Claypool Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Chase Claypool

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Chicago Bears · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Chase Claypool Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-125/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are an enormous 12.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the NFL.
Chase Claypool has been responsible for a monstrous 22.1% of his team's air yards since the start of last season: 78th percentile among wide receivers.
Chase Claypool has been among the leading wideouts in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging an impressive 10.06 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 95th percentile.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has not been good when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.72 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-most in the league.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 6th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 3rd-slowest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 29.10 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Chase Claypool to be a much smaller piece of his team's air attack this week (11.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (17.5% in games he has played).
Chase Claypool has been among the weakest wide receivers in the game since the start of last season, averaging a mere 11.0 yards per game while grading out in the 11th percentile among wide receivers.
Chase Claypool has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL, catching just 48.3% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 17th percentile among WRs