Chase Claypool Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Chase Claypool

NFL · Player Props

Chase Claypool

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Chase Claypool Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-137/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chase Claypool has garnered a colossal 22.0% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 76th percentile among wide receivers.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has given up the 5th-highest Completion% in the NFL (69.6%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (69.6%).
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency versus WRs since the start of last season, surrendering 9.63 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-most in football.
The Green Bay Packers safeties grade out as the worst unit in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 45.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 118.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling just 52.9 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.1 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Chase Claypool to be a much smaller part of his offense's air attack this week (12.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (18.1% in games he has played).

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