Chase Claypool Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Chase Claypool

NFL · Player Props

Chase Claypool

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Chase Claypool Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-113/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 34.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a massive 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year: 6th-most in football.
The Detroit Lions defense has yielded the most receiving yards per game in the NFL (191.0) versus wideouts this year.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has shown poor efficiency vs. WRs this year, allowing 9.52 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-most in the league.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 47.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 3rd-least plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.
The Chicago Bears have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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