Chase Claypool Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Chase Claypool

NFL · Player Props

Chase Claypool

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving TD

Philadelphia Eagles vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 6:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Chase Claypool Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+348/-675).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -609 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -675.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a heavy 11.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
Chase Claypool has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 15.8% this year, which puts him in the 75th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

Chase Claypool has accumulated far fewer air yards this year (65.0 per game) than he did last year (81.0 per game).
Chase Claypool's 41.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 50.0.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has allowed the lowest Completion% in the NFL (55.5%) to WRs this year (55.5%).
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has given their QB just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

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