Chase Claypool Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Chase Claypool

NFL · Player Props

Chase Claypool

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Chase Claypool Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+325/-604).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +325 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +325.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are an enormous 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
Chase Claypool has been a key part of his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 16.7% this year, which ranks in the 76th percentile among WRs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

Chase Claypool has accrued quite a few less air yards this year (61.0 per game) than he did last year (81.0 per game).
Chase Claypool's 36.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 50.0.
Chase Claypool ranks in the 1st percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging just 0.00 per game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the lowest Completion% in the league (54.7%) vs. wideouts this year (54.7%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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