Chase Claypool Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Chase Claypool

NFL · Player Props

Chase Claypool

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving TD

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Chase Claypool Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+364/-726).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -664 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -726.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a massive 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has surrendered the 6th-highest Completion% in the NFL (70.3%) vs. wide receivers this year (70.3%).
The Green Bay Packers safeties profile as the worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
The Chicago Bears O-line has allowed their QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-most sluggish in football since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 7th-least plays in football this year, totaling a mere 55.0 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.8 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
Chase Claypool has totaled far fewer air yards this year (55.0 per game) than he did last year (82.0 per game).

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