Chase Claypool Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Chase Claypool

NFL · Player Props

Chase Claypool

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving TD

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 5:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Chase Claypool Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+286/-497).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +326 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +286.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Chase Claypool to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing game near the end zone this week (19.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (13.0% in games he has played).
Chase Claypool's sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Completion% rising from 58.3% to 65.2%.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has yielded the 9th-highest Completion% in football (68.3%) versus wideouts this year (68.3%).
The Detroit Lions defense has surrendered the 7th-most TDs through the air in the league to wideouts: 1.00 per game this year.

Favors Under

The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.
Chase Claypool has notched far fewer air yards this year (62.0 per game) than he did last year (81.0 per game).
Chase Claypool's 41.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 50.0.

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