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Chase Brown

Chase Brown Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Cincinnati Bengals vs Denver Broncos

Chase Brown Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 74.5 (-121/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 74.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 74.5 @ -121.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script.

The model projects Chase Brown to earn 17.7 carries in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among running backs.

The predictive model expects Chase Brown to be a more important option in his team's ground game in this contest (78.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (62.8% in games he has played).

Chase Brown has run for many more adjusted yards per game (63.0) this season than he did last season (16.0).

Chase Brown's ground effectiveness has gotten better this season, averaging 4.52 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a measly 3.60 mark last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to run on 34.3% of their plays: the lowest clip among all teams this week.

At the moment, the 7th-slowest paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Bengals.

The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may go down.

The Broncos defense owns the 3rd-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding just 3.99 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

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