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Chase Brown

Chase Brown Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 14

Dallas Cowboys vs Cincinnati Bengals

Chase Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -123.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 65.4% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

This week, Chase Brown is projected by the projections to finish in the 96th percentile when it comes to RBs with 5.5 targets.

Chase Brown has notched a whopping 3.0 air yards per game this year: 91st percentile when it comes to running backs. (This may not sound very overwhelming, but most RBs have negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's line suggests a running game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 4.5 points.

Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Cowboys, totaling the fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 30.0 per game) this year.

The Bengals offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Chase Brown's 85.0% Adjusted Catch% this season shows an impressive drop-off in his pass-catching ability over last season's 93.3% figure.

Chase Brown's pass-catching efficiency has declined this year, averaging a measly 5.42 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.69 rate last year.

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