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CeeDee Lamb

CeeDee Lamb Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Cleveland Browns vs Dallas Cowboys

CeeDee Lamb Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-145/+111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to have 134.7 total plays run: the most among all games this week.

The 5th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Cowboys last year (a staggering 60.4 per game on average).

The leading projections forecast CeeDee Lamb to total 10.9 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.

With an exceptional 30.3% Target Share (97th percentile) last year, CeeDee Lamb stands among the WRs with the most usage in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Cowboys have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL last year, which ought to result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's game.

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 31.1 per game) last year.

The Cleveland Browns pass defense has surrendered the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (54.2%) vs. WRs last year (54.2%).

The Cleveland Browns linebackers project as the 5th-best LB corps in football last year in covering pass-catchers.

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