CeeDee Lamb Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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CeeDee Lamb

NFL · Player Props

CeeDee Lamb

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:56 PM UTC

Analysis

CeeDee Lamb Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-200/+150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have called the 9th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to accumulate 9.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 54.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have played in the most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should lead to lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack effectiveness when facing windier conditions this week.
The New York Giants pass defense has conceded the 10th-lowest Completion% in football (64.2%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (64.2%).

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